Reform Would Win Manchester Mayoral Race Outright Under First Past The Post, Data Shows

Labour appears absolutely desperate to stop Reform and that now extends to changing the voting system for the upcoming Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, which follows Andy Burnham's win in the Makerfield by-election.Michael Heaver argues the context matters: Keir Starmer remains in Downing Street despite it being clear to almost everyone that his premiership is effectively over. Labour has also pushed forward with votes for 16-year-olds, including reports of votes in schools and now the Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election will be held under the supplementary vote system instead of first past the post.According to analysis from PollCheck, under first past the post Reform would win the most first-preference votes with a decent lead over Labour. But under the supplementary vote system, if neither candidate reaches 50 percent in the first round, second-preference votes are redistributed with around 70 percent of Green and Liberal Democrat voters' second choices going to Labour, and 50 percent of Conservative ballots going to Reform. That redistribution could hand Labour the lead instead.It has been reported that Andy Burnham himself is keen on changing the voting system, raising the question of whether this could be used more widely to try to stop Reform's momentum.What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.